November 10, 2026
Brent crude slipped under $90 a barrel on Tuesday, extending a steep slide from the previous session, after President Donald Trump played down the prospect of renewed US military strikes on Iran. The comments strengthened expectations that Washington and Tehran could reach a negotiated settlement to a conflict that has unsettled energy markets since late February.
Tuesday marked a second straight day of losses for the global benchmark, while West Texas Intermediate also traded lower. The decline builds on a sharp selloff that began in early November, when hopes for peace talks mediated by Qatar first gained traction ahead of the US midterm elections. The US has put forward a 15-point peace proposal, which Iran has rejected in its existing form, leaving the shape of any agreement unclear.
Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said the president keeps signaling that he has no appetite for further escalation with Iran, a stance he said continues to weigh on crude prices.
The retreat has come despite fresh violence in the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a large share of seaborne crude. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said two tankers were on fire, including a supertanker that struck a mine. Last week, Iran said five tankers and a tugboat had caught fire in separate incidents. October saw more attacks on vessels than any other month of the war, although tankers have continued to move large volumes through the waterway.
The move suggests traders are placing more weight on diplomacy than on physical disruption, a shift from earlier in the conflict when Brent repeatedly traded above $100. WTI's 52-week range runs from $54.98 to $117.63, a measure of how much war risk has been priced in and out of the market this year. Supply-side adjustments have also helped cushion the market: Saudi Arabia has increased exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, and state shipping company Bahri is coordinating Hormuz transits with the US military.
Cheaper oil has fed through to other assets. US stocks rebounded on Monday as crude fell, and shares of Asian airlines, which are highly sensitive to fuel costs, rose on Tuesday. Gold and silver also gained as lower energy prices eased inflation concerns and the dollar weakened. Energy costs have been a central driver of the recent inflation pickup that prompted the Bank of England's hike to 4%, and a sustained drop in crude has historically tempered expectations for further tightening by central banks.
Market participants have typically noted, however, that the risk premium can return quickly. With mine strikes still occurring and no framework deal announced, any escalation in the strait or a breakdown in talks could reverse much of the recent decline.
Attention is on further statements from Washington and Tehran, whether Qatar's mediation produces a framework agreement, and the frequency of shipping incidents in Hormuz. On the supply side, seven OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, kept December output targets unchanged on November 1, the third consecutive month without a change, after completing the unwinding of their voluntary cuts in September. The group's ministers meet on November 29 to set the production framework for 2027, a decision analysts have described as more difficult given the swings in prices.
Nearer term, traders will track weekly US inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration, as well as the monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency, typically published around mid-month. Upcoming US inflation data will also be watched for signs that lower fuel costs are beginning to ease price pressures.
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